Read a market's page

A market's page is where one question is shown in full. It has the odds for every answer, a chart of how they have moved with the news marked on the timeline, what traders have put behind it and the headlines about its subject.

#Open a market

Select a market's question anywhere it appears: on a card, in a list or table, in search results or in the Predictions box above ordinary search results. Its page opens on 4Search. The venue chip, by contrast, opens the market on the venue's own site.

#The top of the page

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4
5. 5

• The question is the page's heading. A path above it, such as Predictions › Sports › NBA, takes you back to the topic.
• The line under it gives the venue, the topic, when the market closes and the money traded. Select the venue chip to open the market on the venue.
• The buttons at the right are Follow, Share and the odds format switch. Follow adds the market to your list; see Follow markets. Share copies the page's link, and on a device that has a share sheet it opens that instead. The %, US and Dec buttons change how chances are written; see Show odds as percentages, American odds or decimal odds.
• The odds card shows every answer's chance, as a bar for yes-or-no and one-of-many questions, or as a spread of prices for questions about a number. See How to read prediction market odds.
• About this market, on the right, lists the facts. See below.

#How the odds have moved

Under the odds, a chart draws each leading answer's chance over time, with the headlines about the market's subject marked along the bottom.

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4

• 1W, 1M, 3M and All choose the period. An open market starts on one month, and a settled market on all of its history.
• The legend names each line. It appears when there is more than one.
• The dots along the bottom are headlines about the market's subject. Point at one to read the headline and its outlet, and select it to open the article in a new tab.
• Pointing at the chart draws a vertical line and a box with the date and each line's chance, written in the format you chose.
• A sentence under the chart sums it up, such as "Oklahoma City Thunder: 19% on Oct 18, 23% now".

For a question about a number, such as a price on a date, the chart draws the median over time and shades the middle half around it. If a market has appeared on Predictions recently, the chart says Not enough history yet.

#Why it moved

When a market has had big swings and there were headlines about its subject in the hours before them, a Why it moved box lists the biggest swings over the chart's period. Each shows when it happened, how far the chance moved and the headlines published shortly before.

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4

The box says it plainly: news and odds moving together is not proof that one caused the other. Treat it as context, not an explanation. Not every market has the box.

#Every outcome

The Every outcome table lists each answer's chance, its move today, the best bid and ask, what a dollar pays and how much traded. It is explained in How to read prediction market odds. Select a column heading to sort the table.

#The same question on other venues

When another venue asks the same question, a box named The same question on and the venue's name sits below the table, with the other venue's market and how far apart the two are. See The venues Predictions brings together and Compare venues.

#The news and related markets

• The news lists up to a dozen recent headlines that name the market's subject, with a Search link that runs the subject through Predictions. The heading names the subject, for example The news: recession.
• Related markets shows cards for nearby questions, with a link to every market in the topic.

#About this market

The box at the right lists:

Two more boxes may sit below it. Prices it is about lists the stocks, rates or coins the market is about, with their latest prices from 4Search Finance, which may be delayed up to 15 minutes. For an election market, The race links to the race on 4Search Politics.

#A market that has settled

When the venue has decided the result, the page opens on a Settled line, which says what happened and what traders gave it the day before. If the answer had under 30%, the line adds that it was an upset.

1. 1
2. 2

The odds card is renamed The last odds before it closed, the Chance column reads Last odds, and a check mark and a cross show which outcomes happened. A market that has closed but not yet settled says Closed, awaiting its result.